August 2026 projection for 2027 breakout players in MLB
Here we are again, with the promised monthly look and latest projections for 2027 breakouts. The big deal is this: I want to find players that are doing well right now, no full timers, no players in their prime just yet, making the show or barely there, but not quite on everyone’s radar just yet
For a refresher course, here’s last month’s look
Here’s how I compiled it....
For batters, I use these categories via Fangraphs:
BABIP, xOBA, wxOBA, and Barrel%. Get a free Fangraphs account to do your own studies, it’s worth it.
Hitters for this study must not yet be 26, must have played less than half the games in the season. As of this typing, that would be a max of 56 games. I keep all results to the first page of entries from their website, which can hold 30 players. Also, hitters are limited to 174 amount of PAs (ratio of 3.1 per game)
I gave top drawer to the hitters that qualified in all 4 categories and then to 3 out of 4.
This time around we have 6 hitters, all who got into 3 of the 4.
First up is one of the two from June, Gabriel Gonzalez.
Here’s how MLB reported his call up back in June
He’s still with the AAA St. Paul Saints, batting .243/.307/.402, and there’s some idea of him being promoted to help shoulder the loss of Byron Buxton to the DL. We’ll see.
Abimelec Ortiz has gotten into two games, with this combined line score: 5 ABs, 1 R, 2 Hs, 6 TBs, 1 double, 1 HR, no BBs or Ks. In the Rangers organization since 2021 at the age of 19, traded in last year’s offseason to the Nationals. His OBP of.360 in AAA overall, improving on AA, is one reason for him reaching MLB for the first time. He did get reassigned and optioned a few times in July and even last night on 8/3 as I type this. Doesn’t strike out much, probably going to be platooned with Andres Chaparro
Hot off the presses, here’s his first big-league HR
Max Clark is a multi-year, multi-Futures Game leading prospect, so he’s no surprise to the industry. Drafted in 2023 as the overall #3 pick by the Tigers, his stint at AAA Toledo showed everyone he was saturating there and ready for the show. Thus far: 3 games, 12 at bats, 6 hits, 1 HR, 4 runs, 3 RBI.
And how about this for a debut!
Osleivis Basabe (what a great name for a broadcaster to say, just rolls of the tongue. Try it) In baseball since age 16, playing in Venezuela and then for Texas in the Dominican Summer League. He’s since been in the Rays and Giants organizations, first reaching the majors with the Rays in 2023. He’s just now making his 2nd stint in MLB with the Giants. 4 games, 10 PA, 2 runs 3 hits, 1 double, 2 HRs. 5 RBIs. His numbers really did peak at AA but he’s spent much more time to improve at AAA. Could be a part-timer for the short term; he’s also a bit injury prone but not for long stretches of time.
Here’s one of those 2 HRs from 8/1
Jordan Lawlar has also appeared on multiple prospects for about 4 years now. Overall #6 pick from 2021. Slugging is his calling card, and he’s done enough to impress Arizona to call him up for now a 3rd MLB season. Thus far he’s hitting .316/.409/.447...12 games, 44 PA, 6 runs, 12 hits, 2 doubles, 1 HR, 4 RBI, and 4 SBs, no CS. Currently on the DL due to a hamstring issue, will be back on 8/10. Struggles somewhat at 3B so he seems more reliable to be a pinch hitter or DH.
Here’s more from his initial return after being on the 60-day DL
Esmerlyn Valdez has been in the Pirates franchise since the age of 17, playing in the Dominican Summer League in 2021. This year he made good on his upgrade to AAA Indianapolis as well as his initial callup to the show. Up to 44 games played this season, 172 PAs, 27 runs 38 hits, 9 doubles, 14 HRs, 38 RBI. .262/.366/.628. No surprise he was the league’s rookie of the month for July.
Dropping off the June list was Rafael Flores Jr. who still ranks in 2 of the 4 categories. He did get recalled to Pittsburgh on 7/8, then dropped onto the 7-day injured list, off that list now since 8/1. So far, hitting just .211/.348/.421 in 9 games.
We turn to the pitchers.. For this there are 6 categories: K/BB ratio, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, fastball speed, and swinging strike %. Again, no one over 25, and for this juncture in the season, no more than 68.1 IP or 11 GS.
I covered 7 players in June, and this time around we have 7 more, 4 of which got a perfect 6-6, while 3 reached 5-of-6.
Here’s the first four, in no order:
Didier Fuentes is a 21-year-old long reliever for the Braves, aiming to make his 2nd MLB callup stick. He first got here last year but was awful in 4 starts. This is his first pro ball season that he’s being used primarily out of the bullpen. The experiment is definitely working thus far: 4-1, 2.49 ERA, 38 games, 1 start, pitching 47 IP, walking 25, striking out 59.
Bradgley Rodriguez stays at my top level. He’s now 2-2, 3.19 ERA, 46 games, 48 IPs, 16 BBs, 51 Ks. No question, he’s the right-hander from the bullpen for the Padres.
Daniel Espino moves up to the top list from June. He did get recalled in July from Columbus. Season total is now: 6 games, 6 IP, 4.50 ERA, 4 BBs, 12 Ks. I’m not certain the Guardians have committed to keeping up in MLB for now. But the small sample on him shows he just might belong.
Jared Jones had some prospect buzz in 2024, 4 years removed from his 2nd round selection by the Pirates. He did make the show in 2024 as a rotation starter. He was injured all of 2025 and spent this season with several rehab assignment up the farm system. He returned to Pittsburgh in late May. Stats for the year so far:
2-2, 3.81 ERA, 11 starts, 52 IP, 15 BB, 58 Ks.
Oh and look what he did last week
Here are those that ranked 5-of-6, again in no order:
Grant Taylor, who drops from the top to 2nd level here. A current 2026 breakout, here’s where he’s at: 4-2, 2.40 ERA, 41 games, 11 finished, 5 SVs, 18 BBs, 76 Ks. Despite my lower ranking of him (hey, this is a good class here) he’s absolutely solid for me and deserves more of your attention.
William Kempner remains in the 2nd tier. He did get recalled by the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp (love that name). A few games later, he landed on the 15-day DL (right elbow sprain)
For the season, he’s now up to 9 games, 3 finished, no saves, 12.1 IP, with a 2.92 ERA, 4 BBs, 14 Ks. Expect him back around 8/10.
Drew Sommers also stays in the 2nd level, er, mezzanine. He’s remained up with Detroit this past month. This short reliever now has gotten into 23 games, 16.2 IP, ERA up to 4.32, 8 BB, 24 Ks.
I’ll present an update to this list first thing September.