2025 Home Run Derby insights

and a few suggested tweaks

I kinda wish the Home Run Derby were a little bit shorter, but ultimately it's a pretty fun event to watch. Of course, I'd love to hit soft-serve batting practice balls out, but why not make it more competitive? Get a fresh arm from some college kid, or a veteran who can bring the heat. Someone to challenge the hitters with instead of something mostly predictable. It brings a greater sense of realism to the event.

To guess as to who will win among the 8 combatants, I looked to a few stats.....

HR/PITCH: I took note of estimated amount of pitches each batter has seen as per baseball-reference.com

HR/PITCH AT TRUIST PARK Likewise, I split the players' career stats for Truist Park, estimating the pitches seen per their Pitches/PA ratio.

CAL RALEIGH

Pitches: 8685. HRs: 135. Ratio: 66 pitches for every HR, best of these 8. P/PA: 4.00

Estimated pitches seen at Truist Park: 16. HRs: 0

JAMES WOOD

Pitches: 3134. HRs: 33 Ratio: 94. P/PA: 4.15

Truist Park: 120 pitches, 1 HR.

BYRON BUXTON

Pitches: 12142. HRs: 153 Ratio: 79. P/PA: 3.79

Truist Park: 87 pitches, 1 HR.

ONEIL CRUZ

Pitches: 5511. HRs: 56 Ratio: 98. P/PA: 4.04

Truist Park: 44 pitches, 1 HR.

JUNIOR CAMINERO

Pitches: 2147. HRs: 30. Ratio: 71. P/PA: 3.64, lowest of these.

No experience at Truist Park.

BRENT ROOKER

Pitches: 7099. HRs: 98 Ratio: 72 P/PA: 3.88

Truist Park: 50 pitches, 1 HR.

JAZZ CHISOLHM JR.

Pitches: 8399. HRs: 94 Ratio: 89. P/PA: 4.04

Truist Park: 432 pitches, 5 HRs (ratio of 86)

MATT OLSON

Pitches: He's the veteran here with 20652 pitches, and 276 HRs, ratio of 74. P/PA: 4.22, highest of these.

Truist Park: Also the veteran of the group with 5144 estimated pitches, 191 HRs, for a ratio of 26.

I'd be kidding myself if I didn't go with Olson to win the Derby. I say it comes down to him and Cal Raleigh for the final. Who do you like?